Friday, December 19, 2025

Simple Alpha Zero

https://suragnair.github.io/posts/alphazero.html

Post by Andrej Karpathy on X

2025 LLM Year in Review | karpathy

https://karpathy.bearblog.dev/year-in-review-2025/

Alpha zero git

https://grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5_de6d54c3-cb12-4922-bd31-3f7543d26ce2

Mastering games with rl

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.01815

ADD / XOR / ROL: The missing OS

http://addxorrol.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-missing-os.html

Learning to traverse over graphs with a Monte Carlo tree search-based self-play framework | Engineering Applications of Artificial Intelligence

https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1016/j.engappai.2021.104422

[1802.04394] M-Walk: Learning to Walk over Graphs using Monte Carlo Tree Search

https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.04394

2025 Non-Obvious Book Award Winners

https://www.nonobviousbookawards.com/2025/

More than words: prosody in the brain

https://www.reviewertoo.com/more-than-words-prosody-brain/

Fundamental constraints to the logic of living systems | Interface Focus | The Royal Society

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/rsfs/article/14/5/20240010/121763/Fundamental-constraints-to-the-logic-of-living

Tuesday, November 18, 2025

New Pill Can Save Moms from Postpartum Depression within Days | Scientific American

New Pill Can Save Moms from Postpartum Depression within Days | Scientific American

Postpartum Depression Gets a Fast-Acting Fix

Deep emotional distress after birth kills many mothers. A new kind of drug offers better, faster treatment

A woman leans in to kiss a child

Kristina Leos (left), who went through severe depression after the birth of her daughter Victoria, leans in to kiss her child.

Deep emotional distress after birth kills many mothers. A new kind of drug offers better, faster treatment

Postpartum depression descended on Kristina Leos like a heavy fog that separated her from everyone she loved. She could see her newborn baby girl, her two older kids and her husband, but she felt like a ghost passing through their world. "I was going through the motions, but it was like I was looking down on my family," she recalls.

Leos, 40, a nurse who lives in Midlothian, Tex., tried several different antidepressants and doses. None helped. She messaged a friend, anxious that she was unfit to be a mother. She even asked if they would take her new baby, Victoria. Although Leos never considered hurting her kids, there were times when she was driving home from work and wondered what it would be like to drive off a bridge. "I just had no fear of dying," she says. "I didn't care what happened."

In December 2023, nine months after Leos gave birth to Victoria, her doctor told her they were running out of options. She was down to serious choices, including infusions of ketamine (a drug that alters the anatomy and activity of brain cells), electroconvulsive therapy or admission to a psychiatric hospital.

Then Leos remembered seeing something on social media about a new drug specifically for postpartum depression. Unlike older antidepressants such as Prozac, this medication worked on brain chemicals that are particularly affected by pregnancy. She asked her doctor about it, and they decided to give it a try. Leos began the medication on New Year's Day 2024. Three days later her world shifted. "I was driving on the highway, and I could literally feel this huge cloud lifting over me," she says. "And every day I got better and better." The drug, called zuranolone and approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in 2023, has since relieved depression in thousands of women.

This kind of help is needed desperately. For new mothers, the overall leading cause of death during the first year after childbirth is not bleeding or infection, according to one study encompassing 36 states. What kills more are mental health problems, which account for approximately 23 percent of maternal deaths in the country. These disorders include a lot of cases of postpartum depression. Yet fewer than half of the women who show signs of such illness are diagnosed, and even fewer receive any form of treatment.

Emerging research on the biology of postpartum depression shows that it is not like other severe mood disorders neurologically or biochemically. Rather it is a result of dramatic changes in hormone levels that come with pregnancy and childbirth. Studies have shown that levels of progesterone and a related hormone, allopregnanolone, rise significantly during pregnancy. Then the levels drop sharply after delivery. Some women are particularly sensitive to this drop, which can disrupt the brain circuitry that regulates mood, leaving them unable to effectively deal with the stresses of motherhood. Zuranolone is designed to offset that drop-off.

A woman leaning against a building with her eyes shut

Leos finally got relief from her postpartum depression with a new medication, zuranolone; she felt better within days of her first dose.

Growing knowledge of the neurobiology of postpartum depression is also pointing toward methods for earlier and more reliable detection. Many experts hope that identifying biomarkers that predict which women will develop the condition, as well as the introduction of the new medication, will take the stigma away from the illness and stop both health-care workers and patients from viewing it as a sign of personal weakness or poor parenting. "It is a serious mental illness," says Kristina Deligiannidis, a reproductive psychiatrist at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research at Northwell Health in New York State. "We just want to empower women to seek treatment."

Challenges do remain. The price tag for the two-week course of zuranolone is nearly $16,000, raising concerns about how insurance coverage and looming Medicaid-eligibility cuts could restrict access, especially because Medicaid covers about 40 percent of births in the U.S. And researchers are still trying to figure out why the pill doesn't work for everyone. "Not every single person that takes it is going to have a fabulous remission of their symptoms," says Samantha Meltzer-Brody, a psychiatrist and founder of the perinatal psychiatry program at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine in Chapel Hill. Still, she views the medication as a major milestone. "It can work remarkably well for more than half of people, and it's rapid-acting," she says. "That's a game changer."


For centuries medicine has struggled to fully grasp the causes and consequences of postpartum depression. Descriptions go as far back as ancient Greece: physicians wrote about women who showed signs of a depressed mood, and even psychosis, after childbirth. During the Middle Ages new mothers with depressive symptoms were often believed to be possessed by demons or suffering from an imbalance of bile or other body fluids. Postpartum mood disturbances have also been grouped into vague or broad diagnoses such as melancholia, mania or neurosis, which did little to help patients.

Even in modern times, such distress is often dismissed as "baby blues"—the mood swings that affect most new moms but typically resolve within a couple of weeks. But postpartum depression is more intense and long-lasting. It can cause profound sadness and despair, disrupting the crucial bond between mother and child, and its consequences can affect multiple generations. Every year approximately 500,000 women in the U.S. experience the condition. Approximately 30 percent of women with postpartum depression continue to experience symptoms one year after giving birth. For some these problems can persist for as long as 11 years.

Yet postpartum depression is not officially recognized as a standalone illness. It did not appear in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), the so-called bible of psychiatry, until 1994. Even then it was listed as a subtype of major depression. In the most recent major edition, DSM-5, released in 2013, it is still subsumed under the "major depression" label, with the added phrase "with peripartum onset." These additional three words reflect evidence that almost half of women develop symptoms during pregnancy, not just after.

Because postpartum depression has been lumped in with major depression, the two have often been treated the same way. Therapy has relied on traditional antidepressants such as selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) or serotonin and norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors. This approach is rooted in the idea that depression stems from low levels of chemical messengers such as serotonin and norepinephrine that help to govern mood. These antidepressants aim to boost levels of these messengers in the brain.

Not everyone who takes zuranolone is going to have a fabulous remission. Still, it works well for more than half the people. That's a game changer.

But in recent decades the research community has recognized that focusing only on these chemical imbalances leaves out other factors that may underlie postpartum depression—including genetics, inflammation, hormonal changes, and neuroplasticity, the brain's ability to adapt and form new connections.

Some scientists suspected that fluctuations in hormones such as estrogen and progesterone—called neurosteroids because they act in the brain—played an important role. Yet when research groups started examining the levels of various hormones and neurosteroids, they did not see consistent differences that explained why some new mothers developed depression and others did not.

Then, about 17 years ago, Jamie Maguire, a neuroscientist now at Tufts University, stumbled on some unusual behavior in mice that had just given birth, and her observation helped to connect the dots. At the time, Maguire was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of California, Los Angeles, studying an ailment called catamenial epilepsy, in which brain seizures become more frequent or more severe during certain phases of the menstrual cycle. She was interested in how neurosteroids might protect against these seizures. Some neurosteroids have been shown to dampen brain activity by strengthening certain effects of a neurotransmitter called gamma-aminobutyric acid, or GABA. This chemical can inhibit neurons, making them less likely to fire. Maguire genetically engineered mice to have altered receptors for GABA on their neurons, making it hard for them to react to the chemical. Without this "brake" on neural activity, the mice's brains became hyperexcitable. That extreme state can contribute to seizures.

But when Maguire tried to breed the modified mice, she noticed something unexpected. The new mothers showed strikingly poor maternal behavior—symptoms that, in rodents, looked an awful lot like depression.

"They deliver normally, but then during the postpartum period they fail to take care of their offspring, and a lot of [the babies] would die from neglect," Maguire says. Until they gave birth, the mice seemed perfectly healthy. "It's really something happening during this pregnancy and postpartum period that's eliciting these behavioral abnormalities," she explains. When Maguire gave the mice a compound that restored their ability to react to neurosteroid signals, they behaved as normal mouse mothers did, and more pups survived.

This discovery led to a slew of studies investigating how neurosteroids affect vulnerability to postpartum depression, as well as a new theory for how childbirth can trigger mood disorders. During pregnancy neurosteroids surge to extremely high levels—up to 100 times higher than in a typical menstrual cycle—to help the body prepare for the physiological and psychological demands of motherhood. Maguire showed that to handle this flood of hormones the brain reduces the number of GABA receptors in certain regions. This adjustment helps to prevent bothersome and sometimes dangerous symptoms such as severe drowsiness. But those hormone levels drop precipitously at delivery, leaving the brain in a precarious position.

Typically brain cells sense this shift and dial the receptors back up over the course of several weeks, and all is well. But "if you fail to recover those receptors, you get this vulnerability for mood disorders," Maguire says.

This vulnerability arises because the body's stress-response system, known as the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis, gets thrown off-kilter. When the body senses stress, it unleashes a cascade of signals: the hypothalamus sends a message to the pituitary gland, which then tells the adrenal glands to release cortisol and later adrenaline, hormones involved in the body's fight-or-flight responses. Maguire says this reaction is usually blunted during pregnancy and immediately after childbirth because of rising levels of neurosteroids and the activity of GABA. These substances dampen HPA-axis activation so mothers can bond, quietly and peacefully, with their little ones. But if that suppression continues for too long, postpartum depression symptoms start to appear.

Psychiatrist Kristina Deligiannidis says "we had women in the studies who wanted to die." Yet after treatment the self-destructive thoughts disappeared.

Brain-imaging studies suggest that treatment with neurosteroids can restore healthy communication among these various neural pathways and the large-scale networks that connect them, allowing the maternal brain to respond appropriately to stress. "We think that the antidepressant effects of these neurosteroids involve the ability to kind of reset these network states," Maguire says.

A few years after Maguire created her first melancholic mouse models, neuroscientist and pharmaceutical executive Steve Paul co-founded a company called Sage Therapeutics to develop neurosteroid-based medicines for brain disorders. Paul once served as scientific director of the National Institute of Mental Health, where he showed that the neurosteroid allopregnanolone quieted overactive neurons. It did so by modulating their GABA receptors. Allopregnanolone appeared to be a promising way to control neuron behavior.

In 2012 Sage Therapeutics began clinical research on a synthetic form of allopregnanolone called brexanolone that could be given to patients intravenously. The company, working with outside collaborators such as Meltzer-Brody of U.N.C., ran exploratory studies for an involuntary shaking disorder called essential tremor and for postpartum depression. In one small study, Meltzer-Brody gave four women with severe postpartum depression a 60-hour infusion of brexanolone. The experiment did not have a placebo control, making it difficult to determine whether the treatment was truly effective. Still, "the findings of that study were just jaw-dropping," says Deligiannidis, who was not involved in this initial work. Every one of the four women experienced such a remarkable recovery that they no longer met the criteria for clinical depression.

Three larger clinical trials followed, each led by Meltzer-Brody, and they did have placebo controls. In total, 267 women with postpartum depression received either brexanolone or a placebo infusion. The majority of the women given brexanolone did better clinically, with at least 50 percent improvement on a test called the Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression. Even with a strong placebo effect—which often happens in depression studies—the results were impressive. For instance, in one high-dose brexanolone study, 61 percent of patients receiving the treatment went into remission, compared with 38 percent of those taking the placebo.

The work led to FDA approval of brexanolone in March 2019 as the first pharmacological therapy specifically indicated for postpartum depression. The picture was not all rosy, however. The trials also showed that the drug could cause women to feel dizzy or drowsy and in some cases even lose consciousness. Because of these issues, the medication required continuous medical supervision, creating an emotional and financial barrier for many patients. "They would have to check into a clinic and be there for 60 hours for the infusion," says Benjamin Bruno, vice president of clinical development at Lipocine, a Salt Lake City–based drug-delivery company specializing in hormones and neurosteroids. "This drug, it works great, but no one's using it because it's IV."

Michael Quirk, former chief scientific officer at Sage Therapeutics, says the company recognized that an oral drug would be the best way to treat patients with postpartum depression. The trouble, he says, is that naturally occurring allopregnanolone—the active ingredient in brexanolone—has poor oral bioavailability; less than 5 percent gets into the bloodstream if given by mouth. So scientists set about tweaking it and eventually created an effective orally delivered compound that retained a lot of brexanolone's GABA-enhancing action.

A woman kisses a child's hand

After Victoria's birth, Leos desperately worried that she would not be able to take care of her youngest daughter.

The result, zuranolone, was not simply an oral version of brexanolone. "It's a completely distinct new chemical entity—until Sage chemists made it, it never existed anywhere in the world," Quirk says. (He is no longer with Sage, which was bought out by a pharma company called Supernus in 2025.) The new molecule worked. In one study, 153 women with severe postpartum depression were randomly selected to take either zuranolone or a placebo pill every evening for 14 days. The women started off with scores of about 28 out of 52 on the standard Hamilton depression scale, the same one used to evaluate brexanolone in earlier work. By the end of the study, the zuranolone group's scores had dropped to around 9, whereas the placebo group's scores averaged about 14. The antidepressant effects were rapid, with patients experiencing symptom relief in as few as three days. And they were sustained, with patients continuing to report fewer depressive symptoms even after the medicine had left their system.

Deligiannidis, who led this clinical trial, says she will never forget the transformation she witnessed. She recalls that many of the women struggled with the most basic daily tasks—brushing their teeth, taking a shower, even getting out of bed. They had little to no appetite, often surviving on coffee to stay alert, and they poured what little energy they had into caring for their baby. "We had women in the studies who wanted to die; really their hopelessness was at a point where they believed they were burdens to their family," she says. Yet after treatment those self-destructive thoughts disappeared for many. The medication "can be a lifesaving intervention."

The FDA approved zuranolone in the summer of 2023, just before Leos reached her lowest point and thought she was running out of options. She was nervous about taking a drug that had just arrived on the market, and she obsessed over the medication instructions. "I read that front to back so many times, the side effects and how to take it," she says. For her, some dizziness and sleepiness were tolerable. If anything, the meds helped her finally get a decent night's sleep. "[Before] I would just wake up in the middle of the night anxious about things, and I could never sleep," she remembers.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists now recommends zuranolone as a treatment option. Camille Meehan, an obstetrician-gynecologist in Tulsa, Okla., says most of the women with postpartum depression she sees have moderate to severe cases because those with mild depression might not seek medical help. Meehan says she offers zuranolone as well as traditional SSRI antidepressants to her patients, talking through the risks and benefits of each. For example, SSRIs can take four to six weeks to reach full effect, whereas zuranolone often works within days. A full course of zuranolone takes two weeks. The speed is attractive. "It's hard not to use it as a first-line treatment when you know this mom is going through this acute period that can escalate quickly," Meehan says. Yet women's experiences with the new medication have varied widely, she tells her patients. Some people show dramatic improvement, whereas others see only modest or short-lived benefits. Some stop early because of side effects such as drowsiness.

In clinical studies, about 60 percent of patients had a meaningful reduction in depressive symptoms. (For context, traditional SSRIs work for about 50 to 60 percent of people with other types of depression who take them.) Around 16 percent reduced their dose because of side effects, and about 4 percent stopped taking the drug entirely. Currently there's no reliable way to predict who will respond and why, although Meltzer-Brody says the different outcomes suggest different underlying mechanisms are at play. "I think what we've come to appreciate is there's not one kind of postpartum depression—there are likely many different kinds," she says. "It just, again, speaks to the need for ongoing science and development."

Changes linked to two genes may predict the likelihood of someone developing postpartum depression.

Zuranolone may be the beginning of a new generation of medications for postpartum depression, although the number of players is small and the funding is limited. Lipocine, for instance, is using a proprietary lipid technology to develop new oral versions of the older drug, brexanolone. And Taiwan-based TWi Biotechnology is developing NORA520, an oral "prodrug" that gets converted into brexanolone in the body.

Yet even with a pill for postpartum depression on the market and others on the near horizon, many women continue to suffer. That's why researchers are searching for biomarkers to identify women who are at risk and predict who is most likely to benefit from new treatments.

For example, reproductive psychiatrists and longtime collaborators Jennifer L. Payne of the University of Virginia and Lauren M. Osborne of Weill Cornell Medicine in New York City have measured levels of various neuroactive steroids—all related to progesterone, such as allopregnanolone—to see how they relate to postpartum depression risk. They found that women who developed the condition had distinctive hormone patterns in the third trimester of pregnancy. Their pregnanolone-to-progesterone ratio was lower than that of women in whom the illness did not arise, and their isoallopregnanolone-to-pregnanolone ratio was higher.

These discoveries are important clues, but Payne says coming up with a test based solely on circulating neurosteroid levels will be difficult. The hormones fluctuate naturally, and the differences tend to show up as trends within groups rather than as red flags in individual patients. Still, the findings suggest something is shifting biologically before any mood or emotional symptoms appear. And they raise a key question: Do these signals in the blood truly reflect what is happening in the brain?

One woman and three children laying on grass, looking up

Having survived the family crisis, Victoria, her mother, her brother, Joseph, and her sister, Eileen (clockwise from top), are enjoying time together near their home in Midlothian, Tex.

That is where a newer type of biomarker comes in. It is based on extracellular vesicles (EVs), tiny sacs, released by cells, that carry genetic material such as messenger RNA (mRNA) throughout the body, along with other molecules. Because some of these mRNAs originate in the central nervous system, EVs offer a potential window into what is happening in the maternal brain. Sarven Sabunciyan, a neuroscientist at Johns Hopkins University, discovered that the mRNA content of EVs in maternal blood was extensively altered during and after pregnancy in women who developed depression. In particular, he found a dearth of mRNAs involved in autophagy, cells' waste-removal system. "Autophagy is actually disrupted in neurodegenerative disease," Sabunciyan says. "And there's evidence for it in psychiatric disease—I don't think we've done enough of a deep dive, but that's what our data are pointing toward." Sabunciyan is optimistic that tests that use EV-based biomarkers will be feasible within a decade or so.

In the nearer term, promising clues for identifying postpartum depression come from a field known as epigenetics. Epigenetic changes, such as the addition of chemical groups called methyl tags to DNA, change the quantities of proteins that affect the body's stress response. A team led by Payne and Osborne identified DNA-methylation changes in two genes, called HP1BP3 and TTC9B, that seem to predict who is likely to get postpartum depression. Not coincidentally, both genes have been linked to neurons' sensitivity to estrogen and thus to reproductive hormonal changes.

All of this biological discovery is helping to reframe postpartum depression as not an inevitable emotional struggle but a treatable condition with clear roots in the brain. But with the advent of zuranolone, treatment hopes were accompanied by fears that insurers would balk at a therapy that costs $8,000 per week—keeping healing out of reach for many. Since then, however, all major commercial insurers have put formal coverage policies in place, and most cover the medication without burdensome restrictions. So do state Medicaid programs. A financial assistance program from the manufacturer provides the drug at no or reduced cost to eligible patients.

Still, a few states—including Alabama, Alaska, Mississippi and North Carolina—require patients to try other antidepressants and show those drugs failed before they will cover zuranolone. Prior authorization is still the norm in these and other places. Many physicians say jumping through hoops to get administrative approval can be frustrating. Meehan, the OB-GYN in Oklahoma, says the approval process is worse with some insurers, delaying treatment.

Systemic inequities can also prevent access, not only to new medication but to all forms of postpartum mental health care. Many women, especially those in rural areas and in communities of color or those without stable insurance, can face significant barriers, from provider shortages to financial constraints. On top of that, stigma surrounding postpartum depression often keeps women from seeking help.

But if the shift to viewing postpartum depression as a biological disease continues, Meehan says, "that would be huge." She says having new ways of diagnosing and treating the condition could provide a starting point for providers to talk with women who may feel uncomfortable or stigmatized about what they are experiencing. "That is going to allow us to have a conversation, kind of guide it in a little bit of a different direction."

Leos says that in her job as a neonatal intensive care nurse, she often recognizes the signs of deep sadness in women she encounters. She makes time to sit and talk with them about how they are really feeling, remembering that she felt too ashamed after her youngest girl was born to be honest about her emotions.

She wants these other women to learn from her story and to get the help they need. "Postpartum depression robbed me of my baby's first year. I don't remember much about it," she says. "I don't really have any good pictures that showed me happy or throwing her up in the air, smiling." She's missing a good part of the past.

But Leos does realize that because she fought to find a solution, she and her entire family have the future. And, she says, "I'm very thankful for that."

MacBook Protein Folding | Latent•Spacecraft

https://latentspacecraft.com/posts/mlx-protein-folding?utm_source=tldrai

Thursday, November 13, 2025

BBC SKY AT NIGHT MAGAZINE: A US historian looked at the history of UFO sightings. This is what he found.


A US historian looked at the history of UFO sightings. This is what he found.
November 12, 2025 The history of reports of 'flying saucers' and 'UFOs' is fraught with alleged conspiracy theories and cover-ups, claims by believers and de-bunks from non-believers. Are people really seeing things in the sky that can't be explained? And if that is the case, does that necessarily mean they must be of extra-terrestrial origin? Whether we believe in the idea that alien craft are visiting Earth or not, it's a fact that there are numerous eye-witness accounts from across the world

Read in BBC Sky at Night Magazine: https://apple.news/AFTuTpWNRQ3iTDX1O9qkKYQ


Shared from Apple News

Friday, October 17, 2025

NGC1275 CDK24 vs Hubble - AstroBin

https://app.astrobin.com/search?p=eJy7eb0ktaLEVtXcSdXIqCwxpzQVSKsaOwJJv%2FRkQyNzUxDfyBlI5iaWJGeEVBYgVDj6%2BMBl8%2FNyKoNTE4uSMzzzQjJLclKLHfNSXFKLk4syC0oy8%2FOKIbrSEnOKU1XNXdSKS5OyUpNLirFYbQoS8HMHmmoAc4CpC1Y35JXm5IAMK0hMT7U1BFPBmVVApoEBANg3QIE%3D&i=vuzvc0

Wavy-Scope | Handheld Signal Finder to Detect the Sun, the Moon and Even Satellites in Space Using Radio Signals | Portable Handheld Radio Telescope : 12 Steps (with Pictures) - Instructables

https://www.instructables.com/Wavy-Scope-Handheld-Signal-Finder-to-Detect-the-Su/

NYTimes: A C.I.A. Secret Kept for 35 Years Is Found in the Smithsonian’s Vault

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/16/science/kryptos-cia-solution-sanborn-auction.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Chromatin loops are an ancestral hallmark of the animal regulatory genome | Nature

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08960-w

Loops of DNA Equipped Ancient Life To Become Complex | Quanta Magazine

https://www.quantamagazine.org/loops-of-dna-equipped-ancient-life-to-become-complex-20251008/

Thursday, October 16, 2025

[2510.13129] Numerical Cosmology

https://arxiv.org/abs/2510.13129

Deep heat

https://web.ece.ucsb.edu/~zhengzhang/journals/2025-TCPMT-DeepOHeat-v1.pdf

Three Anti-Inflammatory Supplements Can Really Fight Disease, according to the Strongest Science | Scientific American

Three Anti-Inflammatory Supplements Can Really Fight Disease, according to the Strongest Science | Scientific American

Which Anti-Inflammatory Supplements Actually Work?

Experts say the strongest scientific studies identify three compounds that fight disease and inflammation

Omega 3 Fish Oil capsules in a spoon against a yellow background

Capsules of omega-3 fatty acids show some of the best evidence as anti-inflammatories.

Mensent Photography/Getty Images

Experts say the strongest scientific studies identify three compounds that fight disease and inflammation

Inflammation has two faces. It can be short-lived like the swelling after a twisted ankle or a two-day fever when you get a mild flu, both part of the healing process. Or it can be a longer-lasting and more damaging affliction—chronic, low-grade inflammation that lingers in the body for years without obvious symptoms, silently harming cells. A steady stream of studies has connected this type of chronic inflammation to many serious conditions, including Alzheimer's, heart disease, some cancers, and autoimmune illnesses such as lupus.

These findings have begun to reframe how scientists think about disease and some of its causes. They've also created a booming market for supplements promising to lower chronic inflammation. These pills, capsules and powders are projected to become a $33-billion industry by 2027, offering consumers a sense of control over a complex and confusing ailment. Although thousands of products claim to "support immunity" or "reduce inflammation," most lack solid evidence.

Chronic inflammation is damaging because it involves immune system cells and proteins that typically fight short-term battles against bacteria, viruses, and other pathogens. But when these immune system components stay activated for years, they begin to hurt healthy cells and organs. They are intended to break down invading microbes, but over time their ongoing activity can harm blood vessels, for instance, by damaging normal cells that make up the vessels' inner linings or promoting the growth of plaques. That can lead to clots that interrupt or cut off blood flow, increasing the risk of heart attacks and strokes.


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We reviewed dozens of studies and spoke with researchers to find out whether any supplements demonstrate anti-inflammatory activity not just in laboratory animals and cultured cells but in human trials. Just three compounds, it turns out, have good evidence of effectiveness: omega-3 fatty acids, curcumin and—in certain ailments—vitamin D.

Graphic describes the similarities and differences between acute and chronic inflammation. Three examples are shown; an acute inflammatory response to a microbial infection, and chronic inflammation in the form of heart disease and rheumatoid arthritis.

What is good evidence? We looked for consistent results across several studies that scientists described as large and well designed. Many of the more convincing trials focus on biomarkers that researchers use to track inflammation in the body. These include C-reactive protein (CRP), a molecule produced by the liver when inflammation is active, and cytokines, which are chemical messengers such as interleukin-6 (IL-6) and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF-α), both secreted by immune and fat cells.

Still, interpreting these markers isn't straightforward. "We don't have a universally accepted or standardized measurement," says Frank Hu, chair of the department of nutrition at Harvard University. And inflammation involves hundreds of different types of cells and many signaling pathways, adds Prakash Nagarkatti, director of the National Institutes of Health Center of Research Excellence in Inflammatory and Autoimmune Diseases at the University of South Carolina. This complexity makes it difficult to prove that any supplement works consistently.

The compounds that do show promise will not cure cancer or halt dementia. But they may help quiet the kind of underlying inflammation that has been tied to risks of illness.

OMEGA-3 FATTY ACIDS

Herring at a fish market.

Herring is a rich source of omega-3 fatty acids.

Among the hundreds of supplements tested for their effects on human health, omega-3 fatty acids are supported by some of the most compelling evidence. And scientists understand why they work. Two of the main types of omega-3s are eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid, better known as EPA and DHA. The body metabolizes them into signaling molecules that block the production of certain cytokines and disrupt the nuclear factor κB pathway, which governs the expression of genes tied to inflammation.

Multiple studies suggest that omega-3 supplements can reduce markers of chronic inflammation, Hu says, especially among people with underlying health conditions. A large, carefully controlled trial called VITAL (officially the Vitamin D and Omega-3 Trial), which followed more than 25,000 adults for about five years, found that omega-3 supplements slightly reduced CRP in people who rarely ate fish—fish is a natural omega-3 source, so these people were getting almost all their omega-3s from the supplements. The omega-3 supplements also were associated with a 40 percent reduction in heart attacks among those consuming the least fish. "The people who benefit the most from these supplements are people who start out with lower intake," says JoAnn Manson, an endocrinologist at Harvard Medical School who co-led the study.

Smaller trials have suggested that omega-3 supplementation can reduce certain markers of inflammation—TNF-α, IL-6, CRP and IL-8—especially in people with conditions such as heart failure, Alzheimer's and kidney disease. One 2012 trial found that small amounts—about 1.25 or 2.5 grams per day—lowered IL-6 levels by 10 or 12 percent, respectively, over four months. A similar group got a placebo instead, and their IL-6 levels increased by 36 percent during that period.

Taking omega-3 fatty acid supplements was associated with a 40 percent reduction in heart attacks among people in a trial who ate the least amount of fish.

But the evidence across various trials is hard to compare. "There is still a question regarding which is the optimal dose and the optimal duration because different studies have used different doses," Hu says. And in healthy people, who have low baseline inflammation, there might be little room for improvement.

VITAMIN D

Egg yolk still life.

Egg yolks contain some vitamin D.

Rigorous trials have debunked the once popular idea that vitamin D is a wonder drug for everything from breast cancer to diabetes. For a few autoimmune conditions, however, the vitamin can be helpful. In the VITAL trial, people who took vitamin D daily for five years had a 22 percent lower risk of developing autoimmune diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, psoriasis and lupus. "High-dose vitamin D has the effect of tamping down inflammation," Manson says. "So conditions that are really directly related to inflammation may benefit."

Lab studies have suggested that vitamin D may interfere with molecular pathways involved with inflammation, in addition to suppressing the production of proinflammatory cytokines. And in a handful of clinical trials in people with autoimmune conditions, vitamin D supplementation appeared to reduce levels of proinflammatory cytokines such as TNF-α, as well as CRP. In one small study of women with type 2 diabetes, a high dose—50,000 international units (IU) every two weeks—reduced CRP. It also increased levels of IL-10, an anti-inflammatory molecule.

A separate study in women with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) found that a combination of vitamin D and omega-3 fatty acids helped to lower CRP levels. And two analyses that grouped together results from several studies back up the idea that the vitamin can cause a significant, though small, reduction in CRP. Another trial in women with PCOS found that a daily dose of 3,200 IU of the vitamin improved patients' insulin sensitivity and liver function. It didn't affect inflammatory markers, however.

Other studies haven't found consistent effects. The VITAL study reported that people who took vitamin D saw a 19 percent drop in CRP levels by the two-year mark, but this difference disappeared by the fourth year. Whether that two-year dip in inflammation translates into long-term benefits remains unclear, the researchers note. Even then, the findings may also depend on baseline levels. Most people in the VITAL study started with normal levels of vitamin D, Manson says. "People who are already getting reasonable intake may not benefit further from the supplement," she says. A review of other trials looking at inflammation-related biomarkers such as CRP, IL-6 and TNF-α found that vitamin D supplementation at several different doses didn't have a big effect.

As with omega-3s, the varying doses in the different trials may be behind the inconsistent results. Very high weekly doses—40,000 or 50,000 IU—may be necessary. (The recommended daily vitamin D intake for adults is 600 IU.) But high doses carry their own risks, such as too much calcium in the blood.

Although the findings on autoimmune illnesses are intriguing, the American College of Rheumatology still has a conditional recommendation against the use of supplements, instead advocating that people make dietary changes to try to get the recommended vitamins and nutrients from food. Inflammation is central to illnesses such as rheumatoid arthritis, says Arthur M. Mandelin II, a rheumatologist at Northwestern University's Feinberg School of Medicine, but he is interested in vitamin D only as a therapy for patients with demonstrated deficiencies.

CURCUMIN

Still life of turmeric root and ground tumeric in a bowl with a spoon

The spice turmeric contains curcumin.

The pigment that gives turmeric its yellow color, curcumin, is another promising compound for fighting chronic inflammation. The substance seems to interfere with the nuclear factor κB pathway, "the apex of inflammatory cascades in the body," explains Janet Funk, a professor of medicine and nutritional sciences at the University of Arizona, who has evaluated hundreds of human trials on the compound.

Funk's review found that the most convincing evidence for curcumin's anti-inflammatory activity was among small clinical trials. People in those trials had preexisting conditions such as metabolic disorders and osteoarthritis. In a few cases, curcumin's effects resembled those of over-the-counter anti-inflammatory drugs such as ibuprofen. "These small trials—and there are a lot of them—all sort of point to it probably being beneficial," Funk says.

The caveats in Funk's language, however, reflect the ambiguity of other results. A large Canadian trial found no measurable benefit for inflammation in people who were taking curcumin after surgery, and other trials have been inconclusive. One reason for the inconsistency is curcumin's bioavailability: the substance is poorly absorbed in the gut, rapidly metabolized and quickly cleared from the body. Some supplement manufacturers encase curcumin in nanoparticles to improve its absorption, but these formulations aren't always used in clinical trials, nor are they consistently available over the counter.

Some commercial turmeric and curcumin powders have even been found to contain harmful contaminants such as lead. "People buy turmeric powder based on its color," Funk says. "Partly to make it a more beautiful color, [manufacturers] add lead chromate."


Other compounds such as flavanols in green tea and dark chocolate or resveratrol in red wine are often promoted as anti-inflammatory agents. But their supporting evidence is weaker, Hu says. They can be hard for the body to absorb, which limits their effectiveness. In the case of resveratrol, the compound is metabolized and cleared so quickly it's unlikely to have any true impact. And even though a recent trial of cocoa flavanols found a promising effect on cardiovascular health, possibly because of reduced inflammation, any benefit might be outweighed by the many extra calories one would consume if they got the compounds by eating chocolate.

Supplements aren't regulated like drugs. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration doesn't require supplement companies to prove that their products improve health, unlike pharmaceuticals. So there's little financial incentive for these companies to run rigorous clinical trials because, as Funk asks, "What if they find out it doesn't work?"

Such trials would also be difficult to run. Supplement ingredients can vary from batch to batch, especially for botanically derived products, in which concentrations depend on where the plants are grown and how the crucial components are extracted. Even when trials are well designed, they can come up against ethical challenges. "You cannot really preselect people on the basis of being deficient or profoundly deficient in these essential vitamins," Manson says, "because once you identify them as being profoundly deficient, you really should be treating them" and not giving half of them placebos in a multiyear trial.

Still, the appeal of supplements is obvious. We all want simple solutions to complex medical problems, especially as we learn more about the damaging effects of chronic inflammation on health. "The patient who spends a good deal of the visit focusing on diets and supplements is also that patient who's very fearful of medication," says Mandelin, the Northwestern rheumatologist. "They're ready to write [the names] down as if there is some magic answer, and unfortunately there isn't."

Instead experts recommend what good medical studies have shown to work: a healthy and balanced diet. Mediterranean-style diets, which are rich in vegetables and whole grains with some fish and poultry, have especially been shown to reduce chronic disease and to promote good health. Regular physical activity helps, too. "Many people think that they can just take a dietary supplement, pop the pill, and that replaces a healthy diet," Manson says. "That is not at all the case."